代做MGRC30003: Decision Analysis & Simulation, 2024/25代做留学生Matlab程序

2024-12-04

MGRC30003: Decision Analysis & Simulation, 2024/25 – Summative Individual Coursework

Administration

This is the summative individual assessment for this unit. It accounts for 70% of the overall unit mark. You must answer all of the questions from both cases attached. Please submit your work, presented either in a single Word or PDF format document. The assessment is to be completed individually and independently.

1st Case: TechPharma’s New Vaccine Development Project

It is January 1 of year 0, and Tech Pharma is trying to determine whether to continue development of a new vaccine. The following information is relevant. You can assume that all cash flows occur at the ends of the respective years.

Clinical trials (the trials where the vaccine is tested on humans) are equally likely to be completed in year 1 or 2.

There is an 80% chance that clinical trials will succeed. If these trials fail, the FDA will not allow the vaccine to be marketed.

The cost of clinical trials is assumed to follow a triangular distribution with best case £100 million, most likely case £150 million, and worst case £250 million. Clinical trial costs are incurred at the end of the year clinical trials are completed.

If clinical trials succeed, the vaccine will be sold for five years, earning a profit of £6 per unit sold.

If clinical trials succeed, a plant will be built during the same year trials are completed. The cost of the plant is assumed to follow a triangular distribution with best case £1 billion, most likely case £1.5 billion, and worst case £2.5 billion. The plant cost will be depreciated on a straight-line basis during the five years of sales.

Sales begin the year after successful clinical trials. Of course, if the clinical trials fail, there are no sales.

During the first year of sales, Tech Pharma believes sales will be between 100 million and 200 million units. Sales of 140 million units are assumed to be three times as likely as sales of 120 million units, and sales of 160 million units are assumed to be twice as likely as sales of 120 million units.

Tech Pharma assumes that for years 2 to 5 that the vaccine is on the market, the growth rate will be the same each year. The annual growth in sales will be between 5% and 15%. There is a 25% chance that the annual growth will be 7% or less, a 50% chance that it will be 9% or less, and a 75% chance that it will be 12% or less.

Cash flows are discounted 15% per year, and the tax rate is 40%.

(A) Use simulation to model Tech Pharma’s situation. Based on the simulation output, would you recommend that Tech Pharma continue developing the vaccine? Explain your reasoning. What are the three key drivers of the project ’s NPV? (20points)

(B) What is the expected range of sales for the first year of the vaccine's launch, and how do different sales scenarios impact the project's NPV? (10points)

(C) How do variations in the annual growth rate of sales from years 2 to 5 affect the overall profitability of the project? (10points)

(D) How sensitive is the project's NPV to changes in the cost of clinical trials and the construction of the plant? (10points)

(E) If the discount rate were to change from 15% to another rate, how would this affect the recommendation to proceed with the vaccine development? (10 points)

2nd Case: Pixel Palace and Melody Mirage

There are two unique entertainment venues in a town. Pixel Palace, a retro- themed arcade and virtual reality center, and Melody Mirage, an innovative music lounge and holographic concert venue, stand as the most popular attractions. Every month, both venues record their visitor numbers (refer to the TS_data_2024.csv file), which reflect their popularity and the city's entertainment trends. Over recent years, monthly visitor numbers have fluctuated for both venues due to technological advancements, changing consumer preferences, and the impact of social media trends.

To better understand their visitor patterns and make decisions for future expansions and event planning, they have decided to undertake a time series analysis of their data.

(F) Suppose both venues want to forecast the visitor numbers for the next 6 months based on the historical data using smoothing methods. Which method should be chosen for each venue, and what are the predicted values? Please write down your analysis using R. (20points)

(G) Suppose both venues want to forecast the visitor numbers for the next 6 months based on the historical data using ARIMA models. Which ARIMA models (indicate p, d, and q) should be chosen, and how do you interpret the parameters? Please write down your analysis using R. (20points)

Reading beyond the course materials and text could be vital. You are expected to provide a comprehensive managerial report on formulation, solution, and the discussion of the interpretation of the output. Use of graphs and diagrams to illustrate your analysis is certainly encouraged. Use of screenshots of the Excel spreadsheet or R model for each of the various scenarios is also recommended for your own convenience. You should also include the discussion of any assumptions made in applying your techniques to this reassessment case study. You are reminded that this assignment should be handled as an academic report and therefore, the justification ofyour answers is considered essential. You should consider integrating any technical details and/or mathematical justification in the appendix. Finally, it is important to involve an extended analysis followed by more general suggestions of how this project could be extended, including a statement of requirements to carry out the proposed extension. (ILOs 1-5)

Intended Learning Outcomes (ILOs):

1) define and identify the problematic area through developing your logical reasoning and creativity,

2) transform a conceptual framework or verbal statement into its equivalent mathematical model,

3) develop and apply fundamental optimization, simulation, and (multi-criteria) decision analysis models towards the effective decision-making in practice,

4) demonstrate a sound knowledge of a range of available tools and methodologies for the solution of problems and the robust analysis and interpretation of their outputs,

5) utilise computer-based softwares which, along with appropriate data, can facilitate the formulation and execution of various models.

Submission Requirements:

a. This type of individual summative assessment is weighing 70% of the overall unit mark and is related to covering all intended learning outcomes (ILOs 1-5) of weeks 7, 8, 9, and 10 of the unit.

b. The report should be uploaded to Turnitin either in a Microsoft Word or a PDF format. You should use a 12-point font size and line-spacing of 1.5 with blank line between paragraphs. Margins should be set to “Normal ” .

c. The word count guide (1,500 words) includes everything in the main body of the text (including headings, tables, citations, quotes, lists, etc.). The list of references, appendices, and footnotes are NOT included in the word count. There are no set penalties for going over or under this word count guide. If your work is greater than the suggested maximum, you should interpret this as a signal that you have not expressed your ideas concisely or with enough focus. Similarly, if it is less than the suggested minimum, you should interpret this as a signal that your coverage of the subject is insufficiently comprehensive, either in depth or breadth of coverage.

d. An outline marking scheme is shown in brackets to the right of each question. e. Use Harvard System for referencing.

f. Include relevant tables and equations where necessary.

g. There is no expected absolute number of sources, as the quality of sources is more important than the quantity. Students are expected to read widely and should consult the recommended journal list in the Unit Handbook for guidance on high-quality sources.

h. Ensure that you take frequent and multiple backups of your work, since excuses concerning lost or corrupted files will not be treated sympathetically.

i. You must submit an electronic copy of the assignment to the Turnitin through Blackboard. Regarding the similarity index, you might consult Undergraduate Studies Office for more information about academic plagiarism policy. In addition, full submission details can be found in your BSc program Handbook.

j. AI Usage Statement for Assignments: Generative A I (GenAI) tools (like ChatGPT) may be allowed for brainstorming, planning, grammar checking, and proofreading. Specifically, you may use them to generate ideas, develop outlines, create project timelines, identify and correct grammar errors, and improve overall readability. However, using GenAI tools to generate new content is strictly prohibited. All submitted work must be your original creation. Using GenAI for content generation violates academic integrity and will not be accepted.

k. Various websites claim that they help students by showing them what is expected on a typical assignment such as in Business Analytics. These tacitly encourage plagiarism and copying, which does not demonstrate true understanding. It is more important to develop your own voice and your own abilities in writing and research. All assignments are scanned via plagiarism detection software.