Laboratory Assignment #2: The Industrial Revolution & Winner Take All Markets (4/21/2025)
Generate a predictive model of either (A) civil war onset OR (B) urban civic revolutionary contention, then evaluate the model fit over time for a single case. For (A), begin by replicating the regression form. of Fearon and Laitin (2003). For (B), begin by replicating the regression form. of Beissinger 2022), Chapter 3 (Table 3.1). (Data here and here.) Feel free to work in a group, but each individual is ultimately responsible for turning in their own lab assignment. You can discuss the possibility of multiple model specifications with Jesus, who will hold office hours this week or meet virtually with you (or in small groups).
DELIVERABLE: A .zip file to Jesus ([email protected]) containing
(1) A document entitled “Explainer”: In 2-4 pages, briefly describing your modeling choices and describing the meaning of the coefficients that are statistically significant. Be sure to address the following questions in this short write-up: What are the important and robust predictors of the outcome you are modeling?
(2) A document entitled “{Countryname}_{DV}” (for example: “Nigeria_CivilWar” or “Haiti_UrbRev) your model to plot the predicted probability of either civil war onset or social revolutionary onset for your country from Lab #1 over time (examples on back of this paper). Then write up a short essay that evaluates model fit against a sketch of the political history of this country. By “sketch”, what is expected is really just 1-2 pages…but note that Note that a single-country study like this can easily evolve into your midterm or final paper. What you turn in for this lab assignment should be short, but crisp, polished and professional looking, however, (not a “first draft” or outline).
(3) Your R code to produce all tables/ figures in document 1 and 2, error and bug free
Grading/Scoring: For the 4% of your grade, assignments will be rank-ordered by quality. We anticipate workable code will proliferate so there will be ample opportunity for free-riding on the backs of your more R-savvy classmates. In addition, there are two points-based incentives:
“WINNER TAKE ALL” MARKETS: CAPITALISM/GLORY: The first two individual innovators to successfully complete the code portion for (A) or (B) and turn in an acceptable deliverable package will receive 6,000 points and 5999 points. The next two second-place individual innovators successfully completing the code portion of the other (B or A) will receive 4000 points and 3700 points. Third-place individual innovators receive 1000 each. An individual can “double dip” and receive as many as 11,999 points if they are the first to complete the code portions for both A and B. If a glory-seeker pursues this option, note that there is no need to do part (2) twice –code and a single “Explainer” document suffices for the second tranche points.
PORK GOODS AS AN INCENTIVE FOR COSTLY COORDINATION: Each member of the first five-person “team” to complete the code portion of both (A) and (B) of the assignment will receive 2000 points each. An individual innovator can be a part of a coalition if they wish (double- or triple-dipping). If you wish to pursue this option, submit up to five .zip files together as a single .zip file to Jesus along with a clear/unified statement of who deserves individual merit credit.
Fearon and Laitin (2003) on Nigeria:
Beissinger (2022) on Ukraine